Anthropic built an economic model that frames its CEO's bleakest job forecasts as an outlier scenario
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Anthropic has released an economic model projecting three possible paths for the US economy through 2030. In the most moderate scenario, AI's effect resembles that of the internet, with small GDP gains and stable wages. A middle scenario doubles growth, yet knowledge worker pay stagnates, and workers in roles like programming or call centers would need to retrain for fields such as nursing or electrical work, raising unemployment. The bleakest scenario envisions output doubling every 4.5 years, 17.9 percent unemployment among knowledge workers, and labor's share of GDP dropping sharply. The article notes that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei previously predicted that up to half of entry-level office jobs could disappear and unemployment could reach 10 to 20 percent by 2030. Those figures closely match the extreme scenario, meaning the company's own model treats his direst warnings as an outlier. The piece adds that tech executives have a poor track record when it comes to forecasting job losses.
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