Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt calls OpenAI and Anthropic modern colonial trading companies
decoder ·
In a recent Foreign Affairs essay, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt joins historians and researchers to characterize OpenAI and Anthropic as modern equivalents of colonial trading companies. The authors argue that the global AI market is effectively locked by the United States and China, forcing other nations into dependency due to the immense capital, energy, and chip resources required for development. They draw parallels between today's AI labs and historical East India Companies, citing instances where US government orders forced Anthropic to restrict access to its models based on user nationality. While Washington trades closed systems for political loyalty, Beijing promotes open-weight models to spread its standards, creating divergent but equally powerful strategies. Both superpowers face significant financial pressures, with US tech giants planning hundreds of billions in debt-funded investments and interest costs potentially surpassing defense spending by 2036. The essay highlights an 'imperial trilemma' where nations cannot simultaneously maintain defense capabilities, technological leadership, and generous welfare states. Additionally, the authors identify Taiwan and TSMC as the single greatest vulnerability in the AI supply chain, warning of potential conflicts over chip manufacturing. To mitigate these risks, they propose an AI détente similar to Cold War agreements, including caps on dangerous model capabilities.
decoder