Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade
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Microsoft has published a notably cautious forecast on artificial intelligence authored by Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu. Acemoglu predicts that AI will contribute only approximately 1.5 percent to global GDP growth over the next ten years. This projection is significantly lower than the optimistic estimates provided by several major AI laboratories. He argues that the primary bottleneck to productivity is human nature, requiring companies to restructure workflows and upskill employees before gains materialize. According to his analysis, simply building larger models will not solve these organizational challenges. Instead, he emphasizes the need for easily deployable applications that fundamentally alter production methods. Furthermore, he contends that AI extending human skills will outperform full automation due to real-world accuracy limitations. For Microsoft, this perspective supports its strategy of integrating AI into existing products rather than pursuing large-scale automation.
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